Pre-Market Analysis: Nifty Future – 14th Feb 2022

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Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)

Observation from previous day:

On Friday, Nifty opened inside previous day’s range near PDL and sellers took the price down below PDL and broke IB low. After IB range completion, sellers failed to follow through downside and there was responsive buying which pushed the prices back up to test PDL from where sellers enters again and pushed the prices down. The day closed forming NVD day down and value area shifted down. The downswing has also started in daily timeframe, so it looks like sellers are in control again.

What can be expected now:

Today, we need to see whether sellers are able to further follow through on downside or not. Acceptance below PDL can give a continued down move but any rejection below PDL will not be good for sellers because that would mean there is too much buying and the struggle will continue. Any rejection from extremes or acceptance inside previous day’s range will facilitate and sideways.

PDH (17472), POC (17345) and PDL (17280) are the levels to look out for from previous day’s range. Acceptance above PDH we can test virgin POC 17610. Acceptance below PDL we can test virgin POC 17180 and swing low 17047, and 17047 levels is very critical for Nifty.

Trade plan for today:

Market is expected to open below PDL with a gap down and  I will be bearish on Nifty if prices keep accepting below PDL. I will maintain a sideways view if prices accept inside previous day’s range after getting rejected below PDL but will be bullish only above PDH. In case of gap down, i will wait for bulls exhaustion to plan for a short trade only if prices stay below PDL and it can be after IB completion. In case of price acceptance inside previous day’s range, I will probably stay out of directional trade unless I get a very good opportunity.

Some cautions:

  1. No long trades below PDH.
  2. No short trades above PDL.

Disclaimer:

Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.

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