Pre-Market Analysis: Nifty Future – 28th Jan 2022

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Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)

Observation from previous day:

On Thursday, Nifty opened inside previous day’s range and prices were pushed down by sellers at the open but they could not test PDL. After rejection from IB low, buyers pushed the prices up above IB high and closed near the highs of the day forming a Neutral extreme up day. But the value area moved down, so even though we can say there was good buying from these lower levels and a neutral day could be a significant reversal sign, we still need more confirmation which should come with a follow through upside. If prices fail to follow through upside, these buying can just be a small pull back of down move and we can continue moving down later.

What can be expected now:

 What we need to see today is whether the buying the we saw yesterday from the lows of the day is strong or not. For this the buyers should follow through to the upside above PDH and should stay up. Also, there can be some volatility due to upcoming budget event and we need to be careful. There would be not much clarity if prices continue to trade within previous day’s range and in case of any acceptance below PDL, there can be a good fall.

PDH (17175), POC (16950) and PDL (16860) are the levels to look out for from previous day’s range. Acceptance above PDH should test poor high at 17310 and acceptance below PDL can give good fall in prices.

Trade plan for today:

Prices are expected to open inside previous day’s range and there is not much clarity open. Also, this is start of new series so levels are different and we need to wait for IB range completion to get IB value and then plan trade accordingly. IB placement will give up more clarity and IB range above PDH is good for bulls. IB placement inside previous day’s range is a cause of concern for bulls and any break below PDL later would be a good shorting opportunity.

Some cautions:

  1. No long trades below PDH.
  2. No short trades above POC.

Disclaimer:

Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.

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