Pre-Market Analysis: Nifty Future – 16th Nov 2021

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Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)

Observation from previous day:

After a good up move on Friday, prices on Monday opened above PODH with a gap up and there was a big upward move which tested the poor/weak high levels and 18400 but this move was sold into and responsive sellers pushed the prices back inside previous day’s range forming NVD down day. the value area has shifted up and there is a good rejection on upside in Nifty, so there is not much clarity but until that rejection zone is taken out (prices trade above 18400, its best to be cautious on the long trades.

What can be expected now:

We need to see if responsive sellers that entered on higher prices yesterday are able to push prices below PDL. In case they are able to follow through downside, the control will shift from bulls to bears but in case they are not able to push prices and sustain below PDL, the struggle will continue and might result in sideways move.

PDH (18408), POC (18150) and PDL (18080) are the levels to look out for from previous day’s range. Above PDH, prices will be fully in control of bulls and below PDL, prices will be in control of sellers and we can test virgin POC at 17970 and even move below it.

Trade plan for today:

Prices are expected to open inside previous day’s range  and there is not much clarity at open. Only in case of clear acceptance below PDL at open, I will plan for a short trade, otherwise I will wait for IB range formation and then look for a possible short trade later. Long trades are risky till prices accept below PDH, so we need to be cautious.

Some cautions:

  1. No long trades below PDH.
  2. No short trades above POC.
  3. Banknifty is weaker than nifty, so we need to keep watching Banknifty to get clues on nifty.

Disclaimer:

Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.

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