Pre-Market Analysis: Nifty Future – 10th Nov 2021

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Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)

Observation from previous day:

On Tuesday, price opened just below the Previous day’s high and buyers tried to take prices above PDH but failed . Sellers also tried to push the price down but there was not much momentum on selling too.  Small to Medium IB has formed, and price moved below IB low but consolidated near IB low for rest of the day forming a NVD down day. The value area and the profile formed with-in previous day’s range but on the upper end. So, no one has clear control on price as of now but in case prices sustain these higher levels, higher timeframe bulls can take control and move prices further up. In case of acceptance below PDL, there is not much clarity and struggle between bulls and bears can continue.

What can be expected now:

On higher timeframe charts, there is no clarity or any confirmation on the trend as the price is moving sideways in broader consolidation range (17650-18350) for last few days.  We need are clear break out or break down of this channel, then only there will be clarity on trend with higher timeframe traders.  Taking any trade with in this range will be challenging but as there is a clear rejection from lows, my bias is towards upside until that rejection low holds up.

PDH (18140) , POC (18080) and PDL (17990) are the levels to look out for from previous day’s range.   If prices trades above PDH, we can expect further move on upside and prices can test virgin POC at 18300 levels. In case of acceptance below PDL, we can expect buying from anywhere but a test of 17770 levels will not be good for bulls.

Trade plan for today:

Prices are expected to open below PDL and there is no clarity at open auction. Only in case prices fail to trade below PDL, I will look for a long trade opportunity otherwise I will wait for IB range completion and then plan trade. I will probably not look for any short trade today unless we get a very good opportunity in second half but at the same time, I will ignore any long trades below PDL.

Some cautions:

  1. No long trades below PDL.
  2. No short trades above IB low.
  3. Nifty is stronger than Banknifty and Banknifty need to show strength for further upmove in nifty, so keep eye on Banknifty also.

Disclaimer:

Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.

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