Pre-Market Analysis: Nifty Future – 3rd Nov 2021

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Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)

Observation from previous day:

On Tuesday, prices opened below previous day’s high and tested the PDH. The bulls were not able to push the price above PDH, so the follow through buying was missing. Thereafter, sellers pushed the prices down and prices consolidated within the single print area of previous day forming NVD down day.  Overall the price was in sideways trend with inside day and a balanced profile was formed filling the single print area of previous day.  The composite profit of last two days is a Normal distribution, so we do not have any clarity until we break above or below this Normal distribution (17750-18050) zone.   

What can be expected now:

We can expect the price to open inside previous day’s range and we need to see if sellers are above to push prices down below PDL in continuation of the selling yesterday.  In case of follow through downside, we can expect prices to move down and in case of no follow through below PDL, we can expect sideways to bullish movement.  Also, today is weekly expiry day, we can expect a high volatility in price movement towards the end.   

PDH (18038) , POC (17950) and PDL (17860) are the levels to look out for from previous day’s range.   If prices trades above PDH,  we can expect a good upmove and may be test of virgin POC at 18325 level. In case prices accept below PDL, we can expect prices to test swing low 17650.

Trade plan for today:

Prices are expected to open inside previous day’s range and there is not much clarity at open. In case prices break above previous day’s high and clear acceptance, I will go for a long trade at the same time we need to be cautious as today is expiry. If prices breaks PDL, I will plan for a short trade.  But In case prices stay inside previous day’s range, I will probably stay out of trades. 

Some cautions:

  1. No long trades below PDH.
  2. No short trades above PDL.
  3. Today is expiry day, so there can be a sideways movement in first half and some volatility during the second half of the day.

Disclaimer:

Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.

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