Abbreviations I use in the post: PDH: Previous day’s high, PDL: Previous day’s low, IB: Initial Balance or First 1 hour range, NVD: Normal variation day (one of the market profile day types), OTD: open test drive, POC: Point of control, HVN (High volume node)
Observation from previous day:
On Thursday, Nifty opened above previous day’s range and sellers tried to drive prices back inside range with a open-high but were only able to test POC. After the initial 30 minutes, same as on Wednesday, buyers pitched in and took prices above PDH but there was a lot of exhaustion above PDH and due to that, there was an inventory adjustment break towards the end. Today is start of new series (June series) and levels from May level will not be accurate. However, what we need to watch is the trade facilitation by buyers. Nifty is likely to break the all time high level of 15430 and we need to watch price action at those levels to confirm a breakout of false breakout. Also, again due to many timeframes involved, expect some volatility.
What can be expected now:
We will probably open with a gap up but this is new series, so what we need to watch today is the trade facilitation by buyers above 15430 levels. Exhaustion above this level is not good for buyers as this would open up doors for a false breakout. Good trade facilitation above 15430 levels would mean a breakout above all time high in nifty.
Levels from previous day are not valid today. So we can wait for IB range (first 1 hour) and IB high and IB low will be important levels thereafter. Also, in daily timeframe, 15430 is the all time high and important levels, so we need to see if we are accepting above this or getting rejected above this.
Trade plan for today:
Nifty is expected to above previous day’s range and I Will observe price action at around 15430 levels to decide on trade. In case trade facilitation is not very clear, i will wait for IB range formation and then decide on a trade.
- Short trades are risky if prices trade above 15430.
- Long trades are risky if prices trade below 15430.
- Today is an important day in nifty as we are near all time high, so we need to observe – breakout or no breakout.
Please note that this is a personal view for learning , observational and education purpose and is not a trading recommendation. Trading futures carry a risk, so you should consult a financial expert before taking any risk. Also, Nifty in above statements Indicate Nifty future for current month and not Nifty index.